Feeling Minnesota : What will Brett ?

If Jay Glazer's speculation is true and he signs very soon, what will Brett: Favre mean to the Minnesota Vikings? Not much. To come up with that result, we used the same technology and approach as our 2009 NFL Preview. We simulated the upcoming season 10,000 times with Brett Favre taking every snap at quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings and compared it to a combination of Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels at quarterback. Without Favre, and with a playbook similar to last season where the team runs the ball about 57 percent of the time, the Vikings win 11.05 games on average. That is good enough to win the NFC North title over the Chicago Bears by 2.86 games. The Favre-less Vikings are favored in 15 out of 16 games, only losing at Arizona by an average score of 25-18. Here is the Favre-less Vikings' projected schedule and results: Week Opponent Win% Avg Score 1 @Cleveland Browns 92 33-18 2 @Detroit Lions 81 28-19 3 San Francisco 49ers 60 25-20 4 Green Bay Packers 76 28-18 5 @St. Louis Rams 84 30-19 6 Baltimore Ravens 76 26-16 7 @Pittsburgh Steelers 55 18-19 8 @Green Bay Packers 70 25-20 10 Detroit Lions 86 31-16 11 Seattle Seahawks 80 26-15 12 Chicago Bears 62 22-17 13 @Arizona Cardinals 33 18-25 14 Cincinnati Bengals 75 26-17 15 @Carolina Panthers 57 23-24 16 @Chicago Bears 65 21-18 17 New York Giants 53 22-20 Largely due to their victory over Minnesota, the Arizona Cardinals finish ahead of the Vikings to earn the second seed in the NFC playoffs and a first round bye (Philadelphia is the top seed). In the playoffs, Minnesota first defeats the Giants at home before playing at Arizona. The Vikings lose to the Cardinals on the roadâ€"this time by an average score of 28-21. Minnesota is eighth in our initial 2009 NFL Power Rankings. With Favre and a more balanced playbook, the Vikings win 11.11 games on average, to win the division over the Chicago Bears by 2.84 games (the Bears are a little stronger now than two months ago). With Favre, the Vikings are still favored in 15 out of 16 games, only losing at Arizona by a score of 25-19. The Cardinals again finish ahead of the Vikings to earn the second seed in the NFC playoffs and a first round bye. Here is Vikings' projected schedule and results with Brett Favre: Week Opponent Win% Avg Score 1 @Cleveland Browns 93 33-16 2 @Detroit Lions 80 30-21 3 San Francisco 49ers 60 25-19 4 Green Bay Packers 74 27-18 5 @St. Louis Rams 83 30-19 6 Baltimore Ravens 74 27-20 7 @Pittsburgh Steelers 51 18-18 8 @Green Bay Packers 71 26-21 10 Detroit Lions 87 34-17 11 Seattle Seahawks 82 28-16 12 Chicago Bears 53 25-20 13 @Arizona Cardinals 31 19-25 14 Cincinnati Bengals 80 28-16 15 @Carolina Panthers 63 26-24 16 @Chicago Bears 67 24-23 17 New York Giants 53 24-23 Essentially the same postseason result occurs, where the Vikings earn the third spot in the NFC Playoffs, defeat the Giants, and then lose in Arizona. Minnesota does leap over the Saints to place seventh in the NFL Power Rankings with Favre. Brett Favre is worth 0.05 wins to the Minnesota Vikings. Against some teams, Minnesota improves. Against othersâ€"typically those more adept at forcing turnoversâ€"the Vikings are not as successful. They may be the same in terms of wins and losses, but statistically, these are two different teams. The Favre-less Vikings score 25.3 points per game and allow 18.6. They throw for 2,869 yards, 22 TDs, and 10 interceptions and rush for 2,665 yards and 22 TDs. With Favre, the Vikings score 26.4 points per game and allow 19.7. Favre throws for 3,460 yards, 26 TDs, and 15 interceptions, while the team rushes for 2,355 yards and 20 TDs. The strength of this team is in its ability to run and stop the run. Adrian Peterson is approaching the prime of his career and should be a perennial MVP candidate. Chester Taylor and rookie Percy Harvin will also provide explosiveness out of the backfield, and the offensive line is among the league's best. Throwing more often may score a few extra points, but it is going to hurt a strong, yet thin defense and will lead to more offensive turnovers. Even if the Vikings with Favre run the ball as frequently as our original projection, the Vikings' turnover rate will still go up due to Favre's presence. For Minnesota, according to our simulations, Favre does not appear to be worth it. The team does not need a great quarterback to succeedâ€"and Brett Favre is not a great quarterback any more. Want to know how the best players of today would do against the greats of all time? Find out using SimMatchup or build a team of the best ever and compete against others in the SimLeagues. Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!
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